Victoria Kirillova: Operational vs. Academic Forecasting in Armed Conflict: An Empirical Reassessment Based on the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War
Abstract
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia provides a rare empirical benchmark for evaluating forecasting methodologies in international relations. This article demonstrates that dominant academic approaches—rational choice theory, deterrence theory, and structural realism—systematically failed to predict the invasion despite the availability of relevant pre-war data. By