Yurii Shulipa: Why Moscow’s conventional war against NATO is imminent

About the author — Yurii Shulipa, Honorary Consul of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in Ukraine, Director of the International Union «Institute of National Politics», legal scholar, political expert

ABSTRACT

The present work is intended to fill the gap of misunderstanding of the current historical moment in the international military-political situation. Based on a brief analysis of Russian geopolitical expansionism and historical revanchism, an assessment of the current military and political situation, and the uncovering of Moscow’s strategic intentions, the author comes to a convincing conclusion about Moscow’s inevitable military attack on NATO member states.

KEYWORDS

Fourth world hybrid war, NATO, international security, military security, subversion, Russian aggression, challenges for the West, gray zone.

The 10th anniversary of the beginning of the Fourth World Hybrid War of Moscow against the Collective West, is dedicated

After the end of the Third World Cold War of the former USSR against the Collective West, which lasted from 1945 to 1992, the world was deceived by Western intellectuals about the end of history.

Having suffered absolutely no punishment for the gravest crimes of Soviet imperialism in destroying and oppressing millions of people, the new leadership of the Moscow pseudo-democratic regime began to actively prepare for geopolitical expansionism and historical revenge for the defeat of the former USSR in the Third World Cold War.

Why is this war the Fourth World Hybrid War of Moscow against the West?

The main stages of Moscow’s preparation for the Fourth World Hybrid War consisted in the implementation of a number of non-military and military measures.

Stage 1. Forceful blocking of the processes of Tatarstan’s independence from Moscow. A year after the emergence of the newly born pseudo-democratic Russian Federation (Russia, RF), a referendum on the status of the Republic of Tatarstan was held on March 21, 1992.

In response to a question: «Do you agree that the Republic of Tatarstan is a sovereign state, a subject of international law, building its relations with the Russian Federation and other republics and states on the basis of equal treaties?», — 61.4% of those who voted answered positively [1]. On May 22, the Resolution of the Supreme Soviet on the status of Tatarstan as a sovereign state was adopted. However, the way to the liberation of Tatarstan from the dictate of Moscow was blocked by force.

Stage 2. Moscow planned, prepared, unleashed and waged the 1st and 2nd Russian-Chechen wars against Ichkeria.

As a cover legend to justify the need for a military invasion of the independent sovereign state of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, an absolutely imperial in nature norm in the draft Russian constitution — article 65 (part 1), in which the Chechen Republic (without the name «Ichkeria», author’s note), contrary to international law and common sense, was attributed by the authors of this document, the Moscow liberals, as a subject of the Russia.

Having lost the 1st Russian-Chechen war, on May 12, 1997, Moscow signed with the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria an interstate «Treaty on Peace and Principles of Relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria»  [2]. With this treaty Moscow de jure and de facto recognized the existence of an independent and sovereign state — the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. The treaty has not been unilaterally denounced by Moscow and is therefore binding on the RF.

In reality, Moscow’s recognition of Ichkeria’s statehood became a cover story to put to sleep the vigilance of the Chechen leadership, society and the international community in order to prepare for military revenge for the defeat in the 1st Russian-Chechen war.

At first, before the full-scale invasion, with the help of its agents of influence and useful idiots, Moscow chaotized the socio-political situation in Ichkeria and made attempts to turn the independent state into a gray zone.

The prominent Moscow liberal Anatoly Chubais said in 1999 that today the Russian army is being revived in Chechnya [3].

Indeed, Moscow has turned the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria into a military training ground for mass extermination of the Chechen people, restoration of Stalinist and testing of new practices of mass torture of people, and preparation for attacking other countries. Another task of the 2nd Russian-Chechen war was to consolidate the Russians and strengthen the role of security and military structures to bring Putin to power, the Yeltsin family group, his close oligarchs, criminals and former Chekists.

As a result, Moscow occupied Ichkeria and committed genocide of the Chechen people.  In the course of the two Russian-Chechen wars, more than half of the Chechens were forced to leave Ichkeria for their own physical survival.

Moscow rolled out in Ichkeria the most egregious practices of torture, repression and mass extermination of people. Subsequently, all of this, only on a larger scale and in even more horrific forms, will be implemented by Moscow both inside Russia’s internationally recognized borders and in the zones of its occupation.

The West and the world community as a whole betrayed the courageous Chechen people, leaving them to fight alone against an aggressor many times superior to them.

Moscow’s enemy aggression against the independent sovereign state of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was encouraged by the tacit support of the United States and the Collective West as a whole for the aggressor.

Stage 3. Moscow’s August 2008 attack on Georgia, and Moscow’s temporary occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The Chechen Republic of Ichkeria became a testing ground for the revival of the Russian army for the subsequent attack on Georgia. Subsequently, Georgia became a testing ground for Moscow’s attack on Ukraine and Syria.

Since the collapse of the USSR, Moscow has maintained its occupation regime on the territory of Moldova in the enclave of Transnistria. Such a scale of seizure of other people’s territories coupled with military aggression is no longer a purely interstate war of one state against another state. It should also be recalled that occupation in international law is a temporary phenomenon.

Stage 4. Beginning of the Fourth World Hybrid War of Moscow against the Collective West.

The beginning of the Fourth World Hybrid War of Moscow against the Collective West should be considered February 20, 2014. It is this date, embossed on departmental medals of the Ministry of Defense of the RF «for the «return» of Crimea». Thus, Moscow itself documented the beginning of its World War against Western Civilization.

Since February 20, 2014, after the beginning of the occupation of Crimea, the phase of Moscow’s covert military and force aggression against Western Civilization began, when Moscow later recognized the presence of its occupation troops in Crimea, although it denied their presence in Donbass.

For 8 years, Moscow used the so-called «Minsk Agreements», the «Normandy Format» and the «Steinmeier Formula» as a cover story to prepare a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With the help of its many thousands of enemy agents, under the cover of talking «about peace», Moscow has been exhausting Ukraine for decades, preparing for a fascist blitzkrieg to destroy Ukraine as a state and geopolitical reality, and the Ukrainian people.

In parallel with the use of military methods, Moscow is actively using non-military methods of subversion in countries whose national security is not fully protected from Moscow’s malicious interference in internal affairs, and much more actively and effectively than the former. For example, former Moldovan President Igor Dodon is a blatant agent of the Kremlin. He even coordinated his speeches at international conferences on the Old Square in Moscow with the former head of the Presidential Department for Relations with Foreign Countries, SVR General Vladimir Chernov [4].

The countries of the post-Soviet space, both those that have become members of NATO and the European Union and those that are not yet, especially in Europe, are being used by Moscow as a springboard for purposefully projecting conflict potential against the countries of the Collective West. Moscow is trying to create gray zones along the perimeter of Europe to carry out subversive activities against NATO and the European Union.

The sources of Moscow’s military threats are not only entire countries, such as the Republic of Belarus temporarily occupied by Moscow, but also militarily well-equipped non-state actors, Moscow’s proxies — terrorist organizations Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, etc., whose potential Moscow is actively using in its war against Israel and the shipping of the countries of the Collective West.

One of the effective non-military methods of conducting Moscow’s hybrid warfare against the countries of the Euro-Atlantic and European space is the systematic large-scale coordinated implementation of intelligence-subversive activity and its integral elements of agent-subversive, information-subversive and diversion -subversive activity within the framework of a single plan.

This criminal activity is aimed at chaotizing the socio-political situation in the countries being undermined, stripping them of their sovereignty and destroying them as States and geopolitical realities. Such behavior is characteristic of a country — a potential aggressor and occupier.

First of all, why is it a War? Because there is a confrontation on all the listed features peculiar to war between the participants on one side: Moscow, on the other side – the U.S. and its NATO allies, and together with them other countries of Western civilization, and countries that involuntarily found themselves under Russian occupation. This is a war of two worlds: the anti-civilization of Muscovy against other civilizations. Consequently, the modern war initiated by Moscow against Western civilization is anti-civilizational, it has all the features of a world war.

Secondly, why is this War a World War? This war is clearly analogous to the 3rd World Cold War, which lasted from 1945 to 1992. Only instead of the collapsed USSR, Russia, its splinter, which arbitrarily considers itself the successor and at the same time the legal successor of the USSR, plays the role of aggressor. And Moscow’s «enemies» are the same as those of the collapsed USSR in the form of the USA and its NATO allies, which, by the way, more than doubled after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact organization and the USSR. Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine have been added to these «enemies» invented by Moscow itself. All other countries, such as Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, for example, can also be safely classified as Moscow’s «enemies». As soon as Moscow’s fascist regime is significantly weakened as a result of its existential defeat in this war, these countries will inevitably leave the sphere of Russian occupation and, as a result, after some time will become the next «enemies» of Moscow.

Third, why is this World War a Hybrid War? Because it is Moscow’s world hybrid war, consisting of a multitude of military and mostly non-military methods of achieving the conceived criminal political goals. Hence the definition of the 4th world hybrid war as a state of international unarmed and limited armed conflict of Moscow against the Collective West and the countries that are actually in the sphere of Russian occupation.

Practice shows that Moscow is using military means to achieve its intended criminal political goals also against countries — former and current Russian colonies, much weaker militarily and organizationally than Russia itself, which lack political and economic sovereignty. Russia, which has declared itself the successor and legal successor of the USSR, continues in the worst perverted and more aggressive form the imperial foreign policy of the USSR (the so-called Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty – Brezhnev’s Doctrine), considering these countries as gray zones of its exclusive foreign policy influence.

With the help of its numerous agents, diplomatic, informational, organizational and economic advantages, Moscow hinders the natural development of these countries, actively planting its agents in all their strategically important spheres, trying to strengthen the gas, oil and energy dependence preserved since the times of the USSR and by all means available to it to strengthen its influence in their territories.

Moscow’s subversive activity against other sovereign states is a constant value, it is the heart of the Fourth World Hybrid War.

With its constant subversive actions, Moscow is trying to destroy the cultural and linguistic sovereignty of post-Soviet countries, up to the point of destroying their statehood, which is particularly clear in the zones of Russian occupation. For example, in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the entire Crimean Tatar and Ukrainian national cultural and linguistic space has been virtually destroyed, and the cultural national identity of representatives of indigenous peoples is being deliberately destroyed. Russian citizens are being brought into the occupied territories of Ukraine on a voluntary and compulsory basis, mainly from among the military and security forces.

At the same time, it is worth noting that agents of an enemy, or clearly hostile, state deprive the undermined state of its sovereignty by non-military means. For years Moscow has been pursuing a policy of exhausting the victim countries of its future potential military aggression. This policy is aimed at chaotizing the economy, military, information and national security, cultural and ideological spheres, and conducting cyberattacks. Moscow’s irregular and regular armed forces are used in the final stages of hybrid warfare, when states completely lose their sovereignty and the authorities lose control over their territories.

So, the occupation of sovereign territories of foreign countries by Russian occupation troops is a statement of the fact that the country has lost the hybrid war.

Since February 20, 2014, Moscow has been in a state of international armed conflict with Western civilization. This international armed conflict between Moscow and Western civilization is Russia’s temporary occupation of the sovereign territories of Ukraine. Ukraine is part of Western civilization.

Fourth, why exactly is this a Fourth World Hybrid War? Because this war of Moscow against the Collective West is an act of geopolitical revanchism and historical revisionism behind the existential defeat of the collapsed USSR in the 3rd World Cold War.

Unlike the term «The Second World War», the terms «Fourth World War» and  «Fourth World Hybrid War» have not yet received official recognition and are purely publicistic terms. It is hoped that the term «Fourth World Hybrid War» proposed by the author will be widely quoted in science and in the press, and then — used at the international and domestic levels. The author hopes that his proposed definition of the «Fourth World Hybrid War» will be understood by a wide range of specialists.

The concept of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, approved by presidential decree No. 229 of March 31, 2023, states: «… (the United States) and its satellites used the measures taken by the Russian Federation to protect its vital interests in the Ukrainian direction as a pretext for aggravating the long-standing anti-Russian policy and unleashed a hybrid war of a new type». As it has happened many times in history, using these phrases and stamps, the aggressor is trying to position itself as a victim of aggression in order to justify its war of aggression.

Importance in this position is that Moscow recognizes the existence of hybrid warfare between itself and the countries of the broad Western coalition with the specification of «new type».

In the author’s work «How Putin Kills Abroad», Moscow’s Fourth World Hybrid War against the Collective West is described as part of Russia’s domestic and foreign policy and is a set of coordinated and united by a single plan of political, organizational, socio-economic, military, legal, informational, special and other measures [5].

Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and intensification of rf militarization to prepare for a large aggressive conventional war confirmed the correctness of this definition in general and required its clarification: war for Moscow is the main and integral part of its domestic and foreign policy.

After all, Moscow spends more than half of its budget on the war against Ukraine and the Collective West.

Factors in Moscow’s preparation for a major conventional war against NATO countries

The data presented reflect the dynamics of the militarization of Moscow and Ukraine.

Total military expenditures of Russia in real terms, 2015-23 (billion US dollars, since 2015). Number of military personnel — top 10

Russia: defense expenditures, 2015-24 (trillion rubles, current expenditures)

Russia: defense expenditures as a % of GDP

Russia and Eurasia: Regional Defense Spending ($ billion, % yoy)

Ukraine: selected foreign donor contracts, October 2022 — 2023.

Data from «The Military Balance 2024» [6].

In addition to the buildup of overall military capabilities typical of an aggressor and occupier country waging a war of aggression, there are two major intelligence signs that Moscow is actively preparing to attack NATO countries. These are Moscow’s unilateral withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) in 2023 and the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District.

For at least the past two decades, Moscow has used the CFE Treaty as a cover for building up its military potential in the European part of Russia. And the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District is connected with the active preparation of Moscow’s military invasion of the Baltic States, primarily Latvia, as a country largely affected by the criminal subversion of enemy Russian agents.

The next most important intelligence sign is the decree of the self-appointed dictator A. Lukashenko «On the transfer of state bodies and other organizations to work in wartime conditions» [7]. In the course of Moscow’s armed invasion of the Baltic states, Lukashenko intends to go to war with the Baltic states and use his puppet army at least as a force logistics troops for the Russian fascist invaders. This is precisely the main point of the appearance of this decree.

Zero point of international security

Since the beginning of the Fourth World Hybrid War on February 20, 2014, all treaties in the sphere of strategic deterrence, military and national security concluded between the former USSR, modern Russia and the countries of the Collective West have actually become illusory. The illusory nature of acts in law is a phenomenon when official acts existing on paper are not implemented in reality.

Strategic stability, international and national security systems have been completely destroyed by Moscow’s criminal war of aggression against Ukraine and the Collective West.

Under the current U.S. administration, control over nuclear weapons has been lost. In violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Moscow has already deployed its nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus temporarily occupied by it [8].

The above means that the Fourth World Hybrid War of Moscow against the Collective West is carried out exclusively according to the civilizational principle: the anti-civilization of Muscovy is waging a war of aggression against Western and other civilizations.

Consequently, in this war, which takes place in the civilizational dimension, all norms of law are illusory for the aggressor, and the aggressor mainly relies on them as a cover legend in order to disguise the realization of his criminal intentions.

For this reason, for the leadership of the Moscow fascist-terrorist regime the threat of application of Article 5 of the Charter of the North Atlantic Treaty against them is not a deterrent.

Stimulating factors of Moscow’s attack on NATO countries

Factor 1. The foreign policy course of U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, qualified by the author as «Maintain pro-Russianism» [9], became the impetus for Moscow’s aggression against NATO and led to the nullification of international and national security in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Hence, the leadership of Moscow’s fascist-terrorist regime has a heightened desire to satisfy its curiosity about whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Charter will be invoked in the event of Moscow’s attack on NATO countries.

Regarding Moscow’s attack on NATO countries, the consensus position of the Moscow regime has been publicized through the channel of the realization of active measures:

«… if Russia launches a preemptive retaliatory strike against any NATO country, there will be no response from the United States, unless there are madmen in the White House and Pentagon who hate their country and are ready to destroy Washington, Houston, Chicago or Los Angeles for the defense of Poznan, Frankfurt, Bucharest or Helsinki» [10].

Factor 2. This factor is derived from Factor 1. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has lost control over nuclear weapons (NWs). Moscow has deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus and provided nuclear weapons for Iran against Israel.

Factor 3. Promises of representatives of the military and political leadership of the Collective West countries to provide Ukraine with military assistance with various types of weapons and non-fulfillment or partial fulfillment of these promises. Failure to fulfill these promises is an act of discrediting the military-political leadership of the Collective West and a strong incentive for Moscow to attack NATO on the principle: «if you have not fulfilled your promises regarding your military partner Ukraine, then you will do the same with your military allies».

Factor 4. The dynamics of Moscow’s militarization exceeds the dynamics of Ukraine’s militarization, which is confirmed by the above statistical data. After the special operation «Election of the russian president» the so-called partial mobilization of Russians continues and somewhat intensifies.

Kaupo Rozin, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, said during a meeting with a group of journalists in Washington: «The Kremlin is restructuring and expanding its military in anticipation of conflict with NATO over the next 10 years. Moscow has put its economy on a military footing, boosting defense production and economic growth in defiance of international sanctions. Everything is going «more or less according to plan» for RF. Russian military leaders have learned from the mistakes of the early stages of the war and are adapting with unusual speed, now solving problems on the battlefield within months». [11].

Factor 5. Due to the acute shortage of various types of weapons artificially created by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are unable to inflict significant losses on the aggressor in the combat zone and cause significant damage to its infrastructure. To date, the AFU is technically unable to destroy at least over 2,000 Russian fascist invaders per day at the front [12].

It is precisely the small losses of the aggressor’s life that stimulate him, including to prepare for new acts of aggression.

For example, in October 2023, when it became obvious that the aggressor had set the task of capturing Avdeevka at any cost, the U.S. reduced the volume of supplies of various types of weapons for Ukraine, thus its foreign policy course of maintaining pro-Russianity from moderately pro-Russian, became more pro-Russian. In this part, by default, the US administration has become more pro-Russian than pro-Ukrainian.

Factor 6. Reaching a bifurcation point in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the conclusions from the analysis of the rf socio-political situation and the need for its transformation, compiled by the staff of INION RAN, prepared for the leadership of the Moscow regime, it is reported: «By the beginning of the third year of the SMO, the West and Russia will reach that bifurcation point when it will become clear how global the confrontation will be» [13].

This is a continuation of the policy of exporting chaos abroad as a defusing of internal tensions through external expansion for the purpose of internal cohesion. This policy of Moscow indicates that Russia is an anti-civilization, waging war with civilizations.

It is noted: «… after the completion of the SWO (special military operation – author’s note) in Ukraine and the fall of the Kiev regime, the confrontation between Russia and the West will not stop, but will only intensify» [14].

Reaching the bifurcation point in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, means the cessation of active offensive actions on the part of Moscow, stabilization of the line of contact and the transition of Russian full-scale aggression against Ukraine into an international armed conflict of low intensity.

Consequently, in an evolving, dynamic politico-military environment (PME), the period of passing the bifurcation point will be associated with Moscow’s military invasion of the Baltic States. «The capture of Riga, seems to Moscow a simpler option than Avdeevka. And given the fact that the famous 5th article of the NATO Charter has not been applied in all 75 years of its existence and procedurally does not meet the actual requirements of military security, the probability of Moscow’s attack on the Baltic States in late 2024, early 2025 and further in 2026, is predicted to be almost 90%» [15]. From a military-technical point of view, it is more advantageous for Moscow to shift its military aggression to the Baltic States than to continue its senseless offensive against the fortified positions of Ukrainian cities. This is the most likely scenario for the development of the PME.

Factor 7. The military and political leadership of the Collective West countries lacks a sense of the danger of the PME. The military-political leadership of the Collective West countries prefers not to notice in the public space that Moscow has entered the stage of active preparation for an aggressive war with NATO.

Factor 8. Lack of proper sanctions and proper control of the sanctions regime against russia.  For these reasons, there is no forecast data that would provide a basis for predictions about the timing of the aggressor regime’s exhaustion.

Factor 9. Non-recognition of the results of the past «elections of the RF president». Recognition of the results of this event, both by the countries of the Collective West and individual international organizations, is tantamount to recognition of the legitimacy of the Moscow ruling regime as legal.

Otherwise, by refusing to recognize the current Moscow fascist-terrorist regime as an illegal regime, the countries of the Collective West and not only, depart from the norms of international law and become violators of them by default, which will only continue to provoke Moscow’s war against itself.

Factor 10. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (PA), the PACE, the European Parliament, and the NATO PA have variously recognized Russia as a terrorist state, a state sponsor of terrorism, the Russian regime as a terrorist regime and irremovable dictatorship (OSCE PA) because of systematic violence against civilians, deliberate attacks on civilian objects and other examples of violence, and genocide of Ukrainians to achieve political goals to destroy Ukraine as a state and geopolitical reality, the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian nation.

These facts are yet another reason for the countries of the Collective West to suspend diplomatic relations with Moscow after recognizing Moscow’s fascist-terrorist regime as illegitimate.

At a minimum, the countries of the Collective West should not have diplomatic relations with the illegitimate fascist terrorist irremovable Moscow dictatorship waging a hybrid war for the destruction of these countries.

Moreover, diplomatic relations are established in order to maintain other relations: interstate, trade, scientific, cultural, etc. And if all relations between Moscow and Western countries are reduced to zero, then there is absolutely no point in diplomatic relations.

Conclusions

To the detriment of international security and U.S. strategic interests, the administration of President Joe Biden is by default saving the Moscow fascist-terrorist regime from defeat in Ukraine, which in reality leads to incentivizing the Moscow regime in aggression against the West. The West still has no sense of objective reality.

The foreign policy course on the maintain pro-Russianism about not defeating Ukraine and Russia in Moscow’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine demonstrates the absence of U.S. goals to restore strategic stability, the rule of international law and international security, and strategic planning.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates admitted in a 2011 speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point: «When it comes to predicting the nature and location of our next military actions, such as in Grenada, Panama, Somalia, the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq, and more, we had no idea, a year before any of these missions, that we would be so busy».

A year before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the author articulates the stages of achieving the aggressor’s primary objective in the Fourth World Hybrid War:

a) nuclear blackmail of the United States, its NATO allies, and the countries of Western civilization;

b) establishment of the Kremlin’s military-political control over at least the entire post-Soviet space, and then over Central Europe;

c) discrediting and destroying NATO as an organization helpless and unable to protect its members;

d) foreign policy isolation of the U.S. from Europe;

e) upon completion of the main stage of the war — consolidation and «legitimization» of its results by the new «Yalta deal» on the division of the world;

f) ensuring Russia’s international influence over the U.S. and Europe, impact on world processes and international politics [16].

It is worth noting that with its federal law No. 127-FZ of June 4, 2018 «On Measures to Influence (Counteract) Unfriendly Actions of the United States of America and Other Foreign States», Moscow has already de jure for itself and de facto, declared 49 foreign states of the Collective West as its enemies, and therefore, designated them as potential victims of Russian aggression.

The general strategic plan of the highest representatives of the Moscow-fascist regime for a major war in eastern and central Europe remains in place, even despite the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and its strategic defeat in Ukraine. With Ryabkov’s ultimatum to NATO to «… pack your bags and go to the frontiers of 1997», Putin outlined the territories of the future theater of military operations in eastern and central Europe [17].

When enemy propaganda says that Europe has lost the meaning of its existence, is mired in corruption and other invented «sins», it means that Moscow has found serious gaps in the national and military security of European countries. Consequently, Moscow is carrying out multifaceted and multilevel subversive activities against European security in order to prepare for a full-scale military invasion of Europe.

The Russian way is the way of endless meanness and this should not be forgotten.

The key essence of Moscow’s war against the West is not the seizure of territory. Capture of territories is a fetish and as one of the factors of justification of warfare. The key essence is the destruction of European peoples, nations and cultures.

Moscow is preparing for a long and serious war against the Collective West, which it intends to wage on the brink of Russia’s destruction – today this is the only correct assessment of the intentions of Moscow’s fascist-terrorist regime, which every politician, journalist and expert in the West must understand. This should be understood by representatives of the scientific elites of the West as well. This is the official position of Moscow, which, in addition to the activities of the Moscow regime, can be traced in particular in the works of experts serving this regime [18].

Therefore, Russia as a state entity has no right to exist.

How to understand Russians correctly? At the 8th Forum of the post-Soviet countries, held in Paris on October 14, 2023, the author tried to convey to Western politicians, journalists and experts the most important idea about how the West should properly understand the Russians.

«The imperial behavior of the Russians is like that of hardened alcoholics and drug addicts. The Russians have made their war against the Collective West and Ukraine contingent on the existence of russia. So, the West and the world community must do everything possible to ensure that the Russians lose this war and that Russia as a criminal, fascist, terrorist and illegitimate state entity ceases to exist. There is no other way» [19].

Parliaments of the Collective West countries and international organizations should call things by their names — adopt Resolutions stating the fact that Moscow has been waging the Fourth World Hybrid War against the Collective West countries since February 20, 2014.

SOURCES

[1] Протокол Центральной комиссии референдума Республики Татарстан от 25 марта 1992 года «Результаты референдума Республики Татарстан 21 марта 1992 года. URL:  https://web.archive.org/web/19991023001118/http://www.kcn.ru/tat_ru/politics/pan_for/wb77.htm

[2]. Договор о мире и принципах взаимоотношений между Российской Федерацией и Чеченской Республикой Ичкерия. Электронная правовая система «Гарант». URL:  https://base.garant.ru/10201015/

[3]. Наталия Геворкян: «Я сделаю все, чтобы поддержать Путина». Газета «Коммерсантъ» №217 от 24.11.1999, стр. 1. Официальный сайт. URL:  https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/231076

[4]. Как Кремль вмешивается во внутреннюю политику соседних стран. Центр «Досье». 19 октября 2020 года. URL:  https://dossier.center/mld/

[5]. Шулипа Ю. Ю. Как Путин убивает за рубежом: монография / Шулипа Юрий Юрьевич. Информационное издание «Национальной политики». – Киев-Берлин; Издание 1-е. – К.: Стилос, 2021. – 492 с. (С. 301).

[6]. The Military Balance 2024.

[7]. URL: https://president.gov.by/ru/events/v-belarusi-usovershenstvovan-poryadok-perevoda-gosorganov-s-mirnogo-na-voennoe-vremya

[8]. By Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer. Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Are Now in Belarus. Foreign Policy. MARCH 14, 2024, URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-nuclear-weapons-belarus-putin/

[9]. Юрий Шулипа: «Выдержать пророссийскость»: реальный курс администрации США в отношении Москвы. Как Западу следует поступить с русскими? Сyprus Daily News. 29.08.2023. URL: https://cyprus-daily.news/yurij-shulipa-vyderzhat-prorossijskost-realnyj-kurs-administratsii-ssha-v-otnoshenii-moskvy-kak-zapadu-sleduet-postupit-s-russkimi/

[10]. Сергей Караганов: Век войн? Статья вторая. Что делать. Россия в глобальной политике. 21.02.2024. URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/vek-vojn-chto-delat/

[11]. By Amy Mackinnon: Russia’s Military Is Already Preparing for Its Next War. MARCH 14, 2024. URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-military-war-nato-estonia-intelligence/

[12].  Юрий Шулипа: Почему агрессор несет малые потери живой силы? Антироссийский форум. 07.02.2023. URL: https://antiruzzia.org/iurii-shulipa-pochiemu-aghriessor-niesiet-malyie-potieri-zhivoi-sily/

[13]. Выводы из анализа общественно-политической ситуации рф и потребности ее трансформации. 13.09.2023. URL:

https://informnapalm.org/ua/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2024/03/10123_131023-1.pdf

[14]. Там же.

[15]. Юрий Шулипа: Стратегия 2024: от сдерживания к победе! Задача первая – содействовать отступлению Москвы с ее прежних имперских позиций. Сyprus Daily News. 31.01.2024. URL:  https://cyprus-daily.news/yurij-shulipa-strategiya-2024-ot-sderzhivaniya-k-pobede-zadacha-pervaya-sodejstvovat-otstupleniyu-moskvy-s-ee-prezhnih-imperskih-pozitsij/

[16]. Шулипа Ю. Ю. Как Путин убивает за рубежом: монография / Шулипа Юрий Юрьевич. Информационное издание «Национальной политики». – Киев-Берлин; Издание 1-е. – К.: Стилос, 2021. – 492 с. (C. 292).

[17]. Юрий Шулипа: Тактические и стратегические замыслы агрессора против Украины. Сyprus Daily News. 28.05.2022. URL:

https://cyprus-daily.news/takticheskie-i-strategicheskie-zamysly-agressora-protiv-ukrainy/

[18].    Юрий Пущаев: Война на Украине и дезападнизация как историческая задача: возможности и пределы. Тетради по консерватизму № 1 2023, с. 139.

[19].   Юрий Шулипа: Стратегия на построссийском пространстве: от выводов из постсоветских ошибок к созданию новой реальности. Антиимперский блок народов. 28 октября 2023. URL: https://abn.org.ua/ru/intervyu/yurij-shulipa-strategiya-na-postrossijskom-prostranstve-ot-vyvodov-iz-postsovetskih-oshibok-k-sozdaniyu-novoj-realnosti/

24.03.2024 Original